Why approval ratings are dumb

The Wall Street Journal ran an opinion article last week on Obama's falling approval rating. The article was based on recent news that "polling data show[s] that Mr. Obama's approval rating is dropping and is below where George W. Bush was in an analogous period in 2001." That was the general sound bite from conservatives everywhere, who seem to want to latch on to any news that this presidency is already a failure.

I’m not Obama’s biggest fan, but I’m insulted for him that the public thinks his job – which involves so many moral complexities, heavy stresses, and general gray areas – can be summed up by a simple thumbs up or thumbs down. Like many things, we are insisting on measuring something very gray in terms of black and white. Most people are happy with that; the idea that US politics are all about two opposite, warring factions makes it kind of fun. The truth that most of us can’t align neatly with one camp or the other isn’t quite as sexy. Maybe that’s why politicians who aren’t heavily partisan are rare.

I guess it bothers me that people put so much stock in approval ratings. A number doesn’t reflect on the kind of job a president is doing, because we don’t really understand the president’s job. We understand what he does in public, and what the constitution says he can do, but day-to-day we just don’t know all the information he sees and the choices he makes, and we aren’t entitled to that information. Discretion is part of the job description, which means a president can’t hope to please everyone. It also means that when we approve or disapprove we’re making an uninformed decision.

Republicans should stop drooling over this data, because the truth is that history tends to remember presidents very differently from how they’re seen during their time in office. I’ve lived through just enough administrations to know that. It’s too early to tell how Obama or W. will be remembered (but God knows that hasn’t stopped anyone from trying). History is just now figuring out what it thinks of Clinton’s presidency.

History doesn’t get caught up in hate-Bush hysteria, nor does it hail Obama as the second coming of Christ. Hopefully, in ten years we will be able to judge this administration by its merits.